Thursday, 9 April 2020
Sunday, 26 January 2020
Jio-Google-Facebook Transforming Rural India!
Jio has opened a portal to a new world, will the development sector walk through it?
Civilizations and cultures don’t propel ahead because of new inventions or unique innovations. Rather we grow and thrust forward because of the mass adoption and application of those inventions. Industrial revolution did not begin with the invention of the first steam engine, production line and spinning jenny. Rather, the revolution emerged due mass adoption (massification) of those technologies. But what has changed now is the rate of massification. While phones took 5 decades in US to go from 10% adoption to 90%, mobile phones took just a decade to reach the same number. The massification of mobile phones has taken time to reach rural India but what is happening now will change the way we (dev sector) understand the world around us.
Chapter 1: The Entry of Jio
In 2017, in the mobile market ruled by the Vodaphone- Airtel duo, Reliance Jio was a late entrant. But, Jio had a plan. And it was really elegant in its simplicity. First, change the playing field. Second, open the gates of the internet executive club to ‘everyone’. Third, don’t let them leave. [These strategies were based on two fundamental effects described in Network Economics – ‘Network effects’ which stipulates that the value of the network increases exponentially with the increase in size of the network and ‘Lock-in Effects’ which stipulates that once people join a network and start deriving value from that network, they get locked in to that network ].
Change the playing Filed. We understand the mobile market as 3 broad categories of phone handsets- basic phones, feature phones and smart phones. The smart phones have internet connectivity, advanced functionality like access to Microsoft office and built in, pre-loaded apps for health, finances and entertainment. Jio chose to do a cross-over. They launched a basic phone with internet capability. It created a new category of internet-enabled basic phones. And just like that, mobile phones with smart capabilities became affordable to millions of Indians. At Rs.1000, the Jio phone is cheaper than the next cheapest phone Samsung Guru which does not even support internet – which one do you think people will buy?
As a late entrant to the game, Jio had access to the latest technology developed in more recent times that simply did not exist earlier. And they converted the late-entrant disadvantage to an opportunity. Jio Internet service is fourth generation (4G) of mobile technology that enables the delivery of high-speed internet services. With over 100,000 mini-towers Jio is the only operator which has deployed pan-India LTE network, giving it tremendous capacity advantage. To us, the consumers, it translates to better, faster, wider wireless network. So, Jio offered a high speed high quality mobile internet on a cheap handset. We saw small town folks gifting a Jio phone to their wives and loved ones. We saw people buying Jio as a second phone, because it was cheap and had great network! The sales were hot from the beginning. In about 3 years after launch Jio’s network covers 200,000 villages with about 75% population coverage. But here is the clincher. With Jio phone comes free mobile data for 6 months. That sweetened the deal!
Open the Internet Gates- Jio phones that come pre-loaded with four apps-Google voice search, Youtube, Facebook, Whatsapp and free data for 6 months fuelled the three things we desire most - Information, Entertainment and Communication. Free music downloads, buzzing whatsapp groups, updated FB profiles and Youtube mania became a sudden rage. We saw young boys and girls in ragged clothes sitting on a roadside lost in their screens and earplugs. More importantly, video calls between families living in rural areas with their sons and husbands working in urban areas became a common phenomenon. In 2019, the rural market for mobile internet leap-frogged at 35% growth compared to lacklustre wriggle of 7% of a saturated urban market.
Don’t let them leave- Unlike its predecessors, Jio went after the difficult rural audience that was unexposed, uneducated, unprivileged. To Jio’s rural customers, internet-enabled, affordable phones was like tasting blood. They were hooked and there was no going back. And that is fundamentally changing lifestyles, habits and consumption trends in rural India.
Chapter 2: The Jio-Google-Facebook Effect
While trying to capture market share, Jio has brought us to the tipping point of change, where we can touch millions of people effectively and efficiently; where individuals can be entertained and educated according to their needs and preferences; where we can propel ahead at a pace never possible before. Imagine a rural mother who has no exposure to health information except for the sporadic visits from an ASHA (community health worker). Until yesterday, she believed and heeded to the advice of her mother-in-law on how to manage her 2 year old’s diarrhoea. Today she can ask Google (vernacular voice search) too and find a whole lot more about the disease, it’s causes and it’s treatment. Whether she can do anything with that knowledge, increase her agency, defy the undeniable norms and negotiate change is something to be further explored. And we will, in a minute!
In the meantime, lets visit her husband who toils on his soil all year long. Today, we support him by providing correct information on farming techniques, seed quality, market rates for his yield through IVRs (interactive voice response). We try to create farmer communities at a local level through sharing real life challenges and success stories that are recorded and shown on Pico Projectors. Five years back, these were big innovations. Today, when an increasing number of farmers have internet on their finger tips, would creating local, geo-based farmer’s community on Facebook not be the obvious thing to do? On Facebook communities, they can record voice messages, click pictures, share videos of best practices, get on-demand market prices and much more. Instant gratification and value creation at its social-good best. Not unlike the Ice bucket challenge, competitions to share the best practices, highest yield or biggest problem solved could be made to go viral. This would encourage high reach at low investment, and continued farmer engagement. And for the first time, give them a stage to shine on, to connect with people beyond the village and the block. India is the largest user of Facebook in the world with 241 million users. The truth is that FB is already being used by rural Indians. For connecting, for sharing, for entertaining. We need to recognise and explore this opportunity as a potent medium to reach millions of farmers, connect them in their communities, empower them to feel the thrill of sharing, liking, commenting and doing better at their jobs.
While it may be easier to tackle knowledge based problems in agricultural domain, challenges encountered to improve health, family planning and woman’s empowerment are much more nuanced and rooted in social and gender norms. One such movement is called Self Help Groups (SHGs) focuses on empowerment of women. The idea stems from the reality that while underprivileged individuals may have no voice ‘alone’, they can bring about change though ‘numbers’. Started as a financial inclusion program, these are moderated voluntary groups of women (and in some cases, men) that come together regularly to discuss common problems, savings, credit and loans. Other than financial engagement, SHG members also share other happenings in and around their lives. They discuss health, nutrition and hygiene among others. The group moderator and the book keeper are literate and always have a phone.
Today 25.4 million SHGs are functioning in India representing 59 million rural women members. But they still have to break out of the threshold of their village, block and district. SHGs are based on the idea of collectivization. The idea that many can have more agency together than an individual on her own. But an average SHG has 10-12 members. Online groups of SHGs through the membership of their representative moderators could expand the horizons of their possibilities and choices. It would inform them of how tricky situations are being managed by other groups and how they stand in a larger community. It could help rally them and galvanise them towards bigger ambitions and larger leaps. WhatsApp group of a single SGH members would prime them to be change makers. While negotiating delayed marriage or continued education for girls in their own families, SHG members will find their support group a finger tap away.
WhatsApp groups have been popular from inception and they are preferred by women as they are more private and exclusive. Rural women claim that unlike FB, where you can be reached by friends of friends, WhatsApp is more intimate. Almost everyone who has access to internet enabled phone is using WhatsApp, and around 39% of rural Whatsapp user are using the app for 1-2 hours a day with 26 % exchanging 11-26 messages daily. SHGs can convert this potent app into a medium of change at a mass scale. They can conduct multiple meetings virtually, discuss problems in real time, find solutions with a larger collective. Currently, WhatsApp is used for forwarding hate speech, fake news and friendly chit-chat. But would the dev world acknowledge that rural India is living in the virtual WhatsApp world. We need to recognise the potent reality that collective collaboration through social media may be the new weapon in championing the sentiment of ‘collective power’ that SHGs were founded on.
But, let’s go back to the lonely young mother with a sick 2 year old. To her, we want to provide correct and reliable information. And to reach her, we have large scale rural activation initiatives; behaviour change programs and government systems of health workers, ASHAs and FLWs (frontline health workers). And yet she stays in complete information poverty. Because reaching the wide congested landscape of India is difficult – mass media reach is low, health workers are not motivated to make home visits and mid-media channels are expensive not scalable. To reach a rural mother and explain the germ theory, the severe risk of dehydration and easy cures and prevention of diarrhoea is a challenge that is expensive on systems, resources and time. In his book The Art of Persuasion, Simon Lancaster writes that to bring change- repeat, repeat, repeat; but the dev sector is still struggling with reach, reach, reach.
However, we know that increasing number of women have access to mobile and internet, even if they don’t own one. With internet-enabled mobile phones we could begin reaching them by creating and curating you-tube videos with correct information. SEO optimisation would ensure that the credible videos show as the top five ranking and have the highest reach. Creating content is expensive and time consuming in contrast to curating already available creative content and enabling content discovery through effective search engine optimisation (SEO). And it ensures that if the young mother has internet, she can seek the information that she needs. The videos are likely to become a great credible negotiator with MILs and husbands to do things a new way, breaking away from the age old beliefs and practices. Chatbots, built on google voice platform of FB messenger can allow interactivity and decision support along a behaviour change user journey.
The tangents of future are unpredictable and unlimited. But we know that the portal to the future is open now. And we can engage with the rural masses in a new exciting way. A way that political parties, media houses, PR agencies and online advertisers are already doing. The opportunity will not remain forever. None ever does. Soon, Tiktok fad might die, new technologies might emerge, rural communities might disengage. Will we continue to ask for evidence for innovation; do pilots for interventions that obviously require scale to succeed; will insist on expensive time consuming RCTs (Randomised Control Trial) for tech-solutions that may become outdated by the time results come out? What we do with this opportunity, here and now, may be the legacy that millions may bear.
Friday, 10 January 2020
DISRUPTERS – The Billion Dollar Truth About Not Giving a Shit
Most of us are sheep. We follow the herd. We live in a set of boundaries and we like it there. We receive support, follow systems and live in a structure. We have friends, family and colleagues. And together we follow customs, traditions and fellowships. And this has paid us great dividends through history. Among the various species on the planet, we are not strongest, fastest or fiercest. To survive in the inhospitable dangerous early world, we had to develop our own super-power. So, we developed the ‘power of numbers’! And that of being able to collaborate in large numbers. So social behavior is as old as homo sapiens are. Developing some – even the most primitive - rules of engagement with the tribe members evolved as part of the social collaboration. 10,000 years back we may imagine a tribe with of hunters and protectors sharing the kill together. But today we come together as a single tribe through mass campaigns to protest or celebrate via Facebook.
Social acceptance is the secret sauce of this evolutionary trickery. It ensures that we follow the herd rules. Our evolutionary development ensured that we do not only want acceptance and approval, we need it. Basically, we give a shit to what others think of us! We give a shit to what we think of them! We give a shit to what others are doing!
To ensure that we survive and do not kill ourselves out of own stupidity, evolution has a few potent tools in it’s bag. And it uses them in a carrot and stick management style. Like ‘the precious’ from the ‘Lord of the Rings’ we crave Dopamine! (To the uninitiated, ‘the precious’ was the plain gold band that had the power to control all of the worlds and everyone who saw it wanted to keep it.) Dopamine is a hormone secreted by the pituitary gland that makes us feel happy, elated and accepted. You get a Dopamine rush when you are praised in the office, when you throw a great party, when you score well in your exam. Dopamine is the sparkle shower in your dull dreary life. We all want to feel happy as often as possible. The only way to feel happy is for our pituitary to release dopamine. And the only way pituitary will release our fix is when our actions and image is appreciated by the tribe. So, all of us, all the time, try to be good people who fit-in!
But sometimes we can be sneaky! We can choose to do things differently. Be outside the herd. Play without the tribe. Draw outside the lines. That releases Cortisol. Cortisol is the anxiety hormone also called as flight or fight harmone. It makes us tense, spikes our blood pressure, constricts our pupils and overall robs us of any ‘happy’ feelings. This balance of Cortisol and Dopamine release based on our actions - often in relation to how they are perceived by others - keeps us in check. The power of social acceptance is like a strong invisible guiderail protecting us from steering away from the herd. Evolution one-o-one!
So, what happens when we prefer something different from the rest of the tribe. Imagine yourself amongst a group of friends who want to watch the ‘Star Trek’ series before dinner. But you’re not a Star Trek fan. Do you go with them anyway or do you miss the fun gossip over beer that would follow after the movie? Why do you wear formal clothing during weddings even though casuals are more comfortable? On a controversial topic with office collogues, why do you wait to sense which way the group leans before voicing your independent opinion? It’s because your primitive brain is telling you – stay in the tribe! When you change or adjust your behavior based on what is expected by the others, it’s called the social desirability bias. Social desirability bias is the - ‘I’m like you’ - behavior even though you don’t really believe it to be entirely true at the given time. It’s the behavior that you think others expect of you!
While our primitive brains might be stuck in time, we as a species have made real progress. 10,000 years back we were hunter-gatherers. Then came the agricultural age leading to settlements. 200 years back we discovered the power of steam engine leading the industrial revolution. We saw new ideology, new thoughts and new products. Each of these events do not align with the social desirability bias or our primate need of herd mentality, simply because these achievements occurred due to ‘thinking differently’ and ‘doing things differently’. At a time when the Nokia and Blackberry ruled the roast, Steve Jobs thought phones should not have buttons. What an odd idea! How would we key-in the phone number or type an email? Then he went ahead and thought that we could possibly need something in-between an I-phone and a computer and developed the I-Pad. These were game changers for the market. killing those who could not rise like Nokia and Blackberry and forcing others to evolve quickly to survive like Samsung. Apple changed the phone industry through I-phone, computer industry through the Mac, music industry through iPod and iTunes and created the Tablet industry. Apple is still at it, with Apple Watch as the latest addition! While Apple is the highest valuation company today at nearly 1.3 Trillion dollars, it all started with one disruptor! It came at a cost. He was unpopular and his ideas seemed outlandish. Jobs was fired by the board of his own company. So much for social desirability!
Today, we see Elon Musk create even larger disruptions. 112 years after Ford Motors Company introduced the Internal Combustion Engine at an affordable price, all transport in the world runs on fossil fuel. Elon decided that he should make an electric car that is better than combustion engine cars on the road both on performance and price – Tesla, named after the inventor of AC motor. Everyone advised him not to. It had never been done before and those who had attempted it had failed. Starting a car company requires a pot-load of start-up capital, suppliers for more than a thousand parts and then another influx of insane amount money for production and marketing. With margins low, to make real profit and sustain the car manufacturing business you need to sell a lot. So, the advice that Elon received was well grounded in the adversities that were stacked against him. Today, Tesla sells three models, is launching a fourth one in 2020 and has recently revealed the Cybertruck. To challenge the big oil and the car industry all at once, one needs to be way off the tribe trail! Perhaps, even a little mad and eccentric and rebellious. Elon has been mocked, ridiculed, laughed at. This is unpopularity one-o-one. It is because of the threat that Tesla might actually make profit leading to a drop in gas (petrol and diesel) demand, that Tesla is one of the most ‘shorted’ stock in the world today. Ask Jim Channos! Tesla has disrupted the car industry, the energy industry, the oil industry! Elon Musk has disrupted many more industries through his other companies but it all started with one disruptor and his obsession with his own beliefs.
The disruptions did not come from the incremental growth of the Dopamine - Cortisol control. It came from somewhere far far away. What do people like Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk have that most don’t. The short answer - They simply don’t give a shit!
But let’s unpack it a bit. While each disruptor is different and each disruption is unique there are common threads that allow disruptors escape the Dopamine-cortisol nexus. They see a problem and feel absolutely convinced that it should be fixed. When Steve Jobs began thinking of the i-phone, he simply wanted to solve the problem of the inflexible, inefficient interface of tiny buttons.. To him this was ‘just wrong’! And he set out to fix that. In the process he revolutionalised the phone industry and now anyone can touch a piece of glass and connect with someone in another part of the world.
When Elon began thinking of an electric car, he was thinking of clean energy. This, he has repeatedly and vociferously claimed in his many interviews. The industry that entirely runs of fossil fuels world-wide is road transport. He believed that burning fossil fuels is increasing pollution. Are we disputing it? He believed that the carbon emissions are changing the environment. Is anyone doubting it? (barring President Trump, of course!) He believed that we will run out of fossil fuels at some time in the future. Isn’t that obvious? And he set out to fix that problem.
Elon’s Boring company is also trying to solve a very fundamental problem. There is too much traffic! And we all nod when we hear that. So, he set out to solve for that problem.
People like Steve Jobs and Elon Musk are independent thinkers. They are not sheep and they do not follow the herd. Their ideas were repeatedly trashed and constantly mocked. Most thought that they are eccentric dreamers, charlatans, crazy, madmen who wouldn’t be able to do much. Jokes are shared on them, they are trolled on social media and embarrassed in public. And communities form that share the common interest of doubting them. Such intense personal persecution would break most of us. Because we are sheep; we live in a herd. But disruptors don’t care. They are lone wolves who do not crave the social acceptance that we need. They do not care about popularity. They do not find being alone unpleasant.
But the question is – how do they do it? What drives them? Why do they not give a shit and stay focussed on their seemingly outlandish ideas. Here is excerpt from an article from Forbes Magazine comparing Steve Jobs and Elon Musk – “One of the most exciting things about human beings is our ability to imagine alternative futures. We can somehow form a picture of one set of possibilities, break it down into elements, reshuffle them, and picture alternative possibilities. And then comes the interesting part. If we like one of those alternatives, we can decide to try to make it real. This might be as simple as firing off an email to invite someone to lunch to discuss the idea. Or it might mean devoting the next years of your life to create a product you believe in”.
Each such intentional act requires a level of determination, or the imagined future simply won’t happen. The more challenging or unlikely the possibility, the greater the determination needed. Unfortunately, the Dopamine-cortisol nexus stops us from taking risks, going against the grain, fighting norms or mockery by the world. It forces us to conform.
The article further explains, “The fire that fuels that determination is conviction”. Conviction is extremely selfish. It is self-belief…belief that often goes against what other believe, what others approve. Conviction for crazy ideas like touch phones, electric cars or re-usable rockets requires you to not give a shit. Not giving a shit to the nay-sayers, not giving a shit to the mockers, not giving a shit to the ‘impossible’.
Conviction comes when you are obsessed with a vision of the future, like a madman. The greater clarity you have of a possible future and the more passionate your view is of the desirability of that future, the greater your conviction will be. And the more you will be able to break out of the dopamine-cortisol control of herd mentality and become a true disrupter.
Disrupter were best described by Gandhi who said, “First they will ignore you, then they will laugh at you, then they will fight you and then you will win”. People driven by evolutionary need for dopamine and the need to be liked by the tribe usually drop out at the first and second stage. Disrupters just don’t give a shit. They continue with their belief, fight on, persevere and eventually win.
Extrapolating the Darwin’s theory of evolution, we might imagine that civilization evolves glacially and incrementally. We would be wrong. Civilizations grow in leaps and bounds due to the unorthodox vision, firm conviction and bold actions of a few. It requires the tenacity to deal with the unforgiving society that will ignore, mock and laugh at their vision and projects. These are few men and women who choose to swim against the current, who make the future that we live in everyday. But what makes for disruptors? How do they cope with nay-sayers and self-doubt? How do they manage failure and still persevere? The article delves into our own instinctive need for being part of a clan and be ‘like’ everyone else, (also called as the social desirability bias in the social communication circles) and the disruptor model of thinking.
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